Mid-Month Market Commentary
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Metro Phoenix June 2019 Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast
Real Estate Market Update mid month June 2019: Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.
For the monthly period ending June 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $172.25 averaged for all Metro Phoenix areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 0.3% or 58 cents from the $171.67 we now measure for May 15. Our forecast range mid-point was $171.96, with a 90% confidence range of $168.52 to $175.40. The actual result was within 29 cents of the mid-point and just slightly stronger than forecast.
On June 15 the pending listings for all Metro Phoenix areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $174.36, up 0.1% from the reading for May 15. Among those pending listings we have 97.8% normal, 1.0% in REOs and 1.2% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This mix is similar to last month. We remain very close to record low levels of distress.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $173.61, which is 0.8% above the June 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $170.14 to $177.08.
The average $/SF has been stronger than predicted over the last 5 months, and this has been largely due to the mix of homes that closed. High end homes were better represented than expected between January through May. The average $/SF for pending listings has risen again over the last month so we are expecting another gain in average $/SF over the next 30 days. The overall price trend continues to move higher, as is normal for the spring season, but we normally peak during the second quarter and then see some weakness for the following 3 months. There is no reason to suppose 2019 will be any different despite the current strong demand.
From the Cromford Report, Arizona’s most respected residential real estate statistics (by subscription).
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